TJ Chambers
Despite the recent quarterly announcements of record revenues by the major vertically aligned entertainment, albeit predominately live music-based, conglomerates with accompanying statements that in 2025 they will continue to out-perform, there is increasingly a disconnect between those corporately-generated headlines and the experience of artists, events and spectacles not attracting FOMO-frenzied audiences, or of regional and second-tier market promoter-producers of less mainstream or fringe cultural offerings, or for the mid to smaller-scale venues whose margins have never been sufficient to ever stop worrying about show-breakeven, let alone rent, rates and salaries.
For many of those individuals, groups and operators, the much-trumpeted post-pandemic recovery has yet to realise audience levels last reached in 2019 or enable them to compete effectively for a diminishing share of the public’s live entertainment attention or expenditure.
In the U.K. the cost-of-living crisis has impacted food stuffs, housing, heating, childcare, eldercare, and public transportation, with stubbornly high interest rates, combined with uncertainty about continued employment, and the ongoing negative legacy of Brexit (increased costs and complexity of cross-border travel, carnets, restrictive length-of-stay, cabotage etc.), has all combined to present an increasingly depressing reality for many.
As noted by the esteemed author and DJ Dave Haslam (https://substack.com/@davehaslam) in a recent Guardian article ‘… It’s not that younger generations value culture and music any less…. I just think that they consume it in a different way and some of their choices are down to the fact they haven’t got the money. (By 8pm it is time to head home: whatever happened to the big night out? – Emile Saner https://www.theguardian.com/music/2024/nov/28/by-8pm-it-is-time-to-head-home-whatever-happened-to-the-big-night-out).
Another impact of some consumers’ apparent willingness and ability to pay for hyper-inflation-busting, dynamically priced ticket inventory for tier #1 international touring artists or marquee festivals has been to directly squeeze the smaller-scale operators market share with the Music Venue Trust (MVT) reporting 76 grassroots music venues closing in 2023, the Night Time Industries Association (NTIA) stating over 65 nightclubs have already closed in 2024 (https://ntia.co.uk/dancefloor-devastation-65-nightclubs-already-closed-in-2024-as-crisis-intensifies-reports-ntia/) and the Association of Independent Festivals (AIF) this week detailed over 72 festivals that have postponed, cancelled or closed this year (https://www.musicweek.com/live/read/aif-72-uk-festivals-postponed-or-cancelled-in-2024/090943).
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On 20th November UK Music released its annual economic report (This Is Music Report Reveals Sector Contributes Record £7.6 Billion To UK Economy – https://www.ukmusic.org/news/this-is-music-report-reveals-sector-contributes-record-7-6-billion-to-uk-economy/) which despite the headline figure warned that ‘the UK music industry faces a number of significant challenges that threaten its world-leading status.’
‘This is Music 2024 tells the story, based on real evidence and data from across the sector, that despite some very strong headline figures in 2023, the UK music industry has vulnerabilities too.’
So, it’s not exactly business as usual.
Ticket revenues (via increased use of ‘super-fan’ dynamic-pricing, bundles and packages) are dramatically increasing across the industry, whilst individual show P&Ls are tighter and fewer operators are ‘profitable’.
Further, the gap between the mega tours and festivals and the local, boutique, independent, regional, experimental or leftfield events is growing.
There has historically been little U.K. government support or grants for ‘pop music’, especially when compared to the high-arts of ballet, theatre or opera – although those sectors will equally claim a lack of care or meaningful and robust assistance.
Additionally, sector pleas for leniency over the level of VAT on ticketing, the creation of a special business rate to be applied to music venues, or the national implementation of an agent-of-change principle for Planning Regulations, has been slow. Whereas support for a voluntary ticket levy to support grassroots artists, promoters and venues has gathered momentum – possibly because there is no directly linked government expenditure.
The large corporations with their extensive international networks, vertically organised divisions of artist management, event promotions, advertising, sponsorship and ticketing, enhanced access to capital and dominant market scale, are primarily concerned with increasing shareholder-value rather than the vibrancy of the music ecosystem.
And whilst their revenues and share prices continue to rise – crisis what crisis?
However, whilst for some there is undoubtedly forward momentum, for others although not a technical recession, or a full sector decline, its arguably a ‘vibecession’ i.e. where economic stress and anxiety is widespread, even whilst others are seemingly doing rather well.
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Additionally, the post-pandemic period has seen new codes of audience behaviour develop, ranging from older patrons reducing event attendance as they’re less confident about their health & safety during travel to/from the event and/or mingling with large crowds; an increased level of stay-at-home audiences apparently converted to a ‘premium’ experience of online streamed entertainment and home-delivery dining; an increased level of ill-behaviour and/or poor ‘audience etiquette’ by those attending events, despite lower levels of alcohol consumption; an increased utilisation of layaway payment plans (see Skiddle Ticketing Trend Report, Q3 2024 – https://promotioncentre.co.uk/blog/download-our-free-q3-ticketing-trend-report/); and significantly higher rates of no-shows by ticket-buyers, even for sold-out events.
This last point is worthy of further comment, why are consumers apparently in possession of valid tickets not attending events they have previously purchased for?
Historically there was always a nominal level of ‘no-shows’ due to event forgetfulness, or an inability to get out of the pre-concert pub, or some other change in personal social standing and circumstances since the original ticket purchase – new job, new city, new partner etc.
But the increased level of missing tickets ranging from 8%-13% for less in-demand shows (whether concerts or dance events) but still as high as 9%-10% for some ‘sold-out’ shows is an alarming drop in attendees, not directly impacting show settlements (as the ticket revenues have already been captured), but with substantive knock-on effects to any incremental F&B and merchandise revenues that underpin event economics.
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In other news, The Stage this week published its second annual survey on UK Theatre Ticketing (https://www.thestage.co.uk/news/the-stage-uk-ticketing-survey-2024-cheapest-seats-fall-as-top-prices-rise-by-15) with research developed with David Brownlee (Data Culture Change: https://dataculturechange.com/home).
It reported that the average top price UK tickets increased by 15% Y-O-Y to £56.46 – driven by 25% average increase within the Musicals genre.
Various industry figures defended the rising average ticket price as reflective of declining levels of public support for the arts, coupled with above-inflation production costs, increased energy costs, and the best-available mechanism to protect lower-price entry for audiences.
Separately, Patrick Gracey argued (Beyond ticket prices: the battles and benefits of regional theatre – https://www.thestage.co.uk/opinion/patrick-gracey-beyond-ticket-prices-the-battles-and-benefits-of-regional-theatre-the-stage-2024-uk-ticketing-survey) that the majority of tickets sold in regional theatres cost under £35 (with 99.9% apparently priced below £100) and that even in commercial venues, 65% of all tickets sold for less than £45.
He further claimed that singularly focussing on the price of tickets missed the other economic impact of the arts, which directly supported local and neighbouring enterprises, and indirectly boosted domestic and international tourism, claiming that ‘for every £1 spent on a theatre ticket, an additional £1.40 is generated within the local economy.
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Lastly, following last week’s post ‘Show Me The Money!’ (https://tjchambers.blog/2024/11/25/op-ed-show-me-the-money/) I received a couple of complimentary messages from former colleagues – thanks in particular to Michael C. and Domingo T. for your kind words.
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Until next time.
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TJ_Chambers 