TJ Chambers
Synchronicity, or the coincidence of events.
Whilst drafting last week’s post ‘#Ticket Bots … And in other news (06.12.24): https://tjchambers.blog/2024/12/06/ticket-bots-and-in-other-news-06-12-24/ there were a couple of related news items.
Firstly, a planned onsale of tickets for Scottish Rugby’s upcoming Six Nations fixtures was postponed after the website was targeted in a suspected ‘bot attack’.
As reported by The Scotsman (Scotland dramatically suspend Six Nations ticket sales after ‘bot attack’ detected – https://www.scotsman.com/sport/rugby-union/scotland-dramatically-suspend-six-nations-ticket-sales-after-bot-attack-detected-4898129) and other media, the sale of tickets was suspended after ‘suspicious activity’ led to fears bots had targeted the pre-sale. Scottish Rugby stated it was working closely with Ticketmaster to ensure tickets were only purchased by genuine fans and would provide a further update with a revised schedule of sale dates for the affected games.
Separately, US Senator Richard Blumenthal has called on the country’s Federal Trade Commission to enforce the 2016 BOTS Act which he claims it has ‘only taken action once’ in eight years, which has ‘fostered a sense of impunity’ (https://www.blumenthal.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/2024-12-06_blumenthal_letter_to_ftc_bots_act_1l58lt4trqxuu.pdf).
The Act was originally drafted to ban ‘ticket bots’ that bypassed security measures on ticketing websites enabling scalpers to then resell ticket inventory at massively increased prices. Blumenthal urged the agency to enforce existing consumer protection laws and to proactively protect concertgoers and small venues from these ‘predatory ticketing schemes’.
He stated that ‘concertgoers are increasingly competing with well-resourced scalpers, who crowd out real fans with automated bots to buy out seats for even small, local shows’.
Blumenthal also linked the ability to fend off bots and combat the anti-consumer practices of ticket scalpers, to a reinforcement of the market power of large scale and dominant venue and ticketing platforms ‘such as Live Nation/Ticketmaster’.
However, as noted by Ethan Millman in Rolling Stone (Senator Calls On FTC To Finally Do Something About Ticketing Bots: https://www.rollingstone.com/music/music-news/senator-calls-on-ftc-to-enforce-bots-act-1235195779/) it is unclear how much impact this appeal will have as it’s widely believed that President-elect Donald Trump will appoint a new FTC chairperson to replace Lina Khan once he takes office.
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STOP PRESS (11.12.24) And so it came to pass. Overnight news from the U.S. confirmed that Republican Andrew Ferguson, one of five FTC commissioners, would become the next chair – ‘Andrew will be the most America First, and pro-innovation FTC Chair in our Country’s History.’ – Donald Trump.
Further details via CNBC: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/10/trump-names-andrew-ferguson-as-head-of-federal-trade-commission-to-replace-lina-khan.html.
It is widely expected that the election of the new President, combined with the forthcoming Republican control of Congress, will mean a significant change in how the FTC operates, and the recent ‘aggressive’ examination of anti-competitive behaviour by ‘Big Tech’ (Alphabet, Amazon, Meta etc.), and other industry reviews, for example the Live Nation-Ticketmaster merger, is now more likely to adopt a free-market perspective.
Other U.S. media are already reporting Andrew Ferguson as somebody who will ‘reverse Lina Khan’s anti-business agenda’ and ‘fight wokeness’ (Verge: https://www.theverge.com/2024/12/10/24318388/trump-ftc-chair-pick-andrew-ferguson-censorship-tech-companies.)
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Elsewhere Lucas Shaw in Bloomberg described the glee with which many corporations have embraced the recent U.S. election result: ‘Business moguls are happy Trump is back. Even if they don’t like him personally, they believe the former and future president will be more business friendly than the Biden administration.’ (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-12-09/a-trump-sequel-won-t-solve-hollywood-s-biggest-problem).
Despite the increased cost of capital (typically a combination of debt and equity) Shaw outlines a number of potential forthcoming deals in media and entertainment which he states will inevitably lead to further sector consolidation across film & TV production companies; digital streaming channels; content + experiential bundling; and the aggregation of podcasts + influencers with e-commerce & events.
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Typically, when debt is more expensive, deal-making slows down. But for voracious corporations such as Live Nation Entertainment (LNE) who have maintained momentum and increased stock price by repeatedly acquiring new businesses – including in the last month, a new venue in Singapore (https://www.livenationentertainment.com/2024/12/live-nation-unveils-first-of-its-kind-entertainment-venue-in-singapore/), stadium management partnership in Johannesburg (https://www.livenationentertainment.com/2024/11/live-nation-in-partnership-with-stadium-management-south-africa-and-gearhouse-south-africa-unveils-the-dome-new-venue-revolutionising-live-entertainment-in-johannesburg/), the acquisition of an arena in Lisbon (https://www.livenationentertainment.com/2024/11/live-nation-expands-into-portugal-with-meo-arena-acquisition/), and the purchase of a majority stake in Timeline a talent management company focused on creators and influencers (https://www.musicbusinessworldwide.com/live-nation-just-majority-acquired-a-hollywood-influencer-management-company-heres-why-that-matters/).
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In order to finance these types of transactions, as well pay down some historical debt LNE announced (03.12.24) the launch of a $1 Billion Convertible Senior Notes offering (https://www.livenationentertainment.com/2024/12/live-nation-entertainment-announces-launch-of-convertible-senior-notes-offering-2/) and then (03.12.24) their pricing (https://www.livenationentertainment.com/2024/12/live-nation-entertainment-announces-pricing-of-convertible-senior-notes-offering/).
Also, last week in a separate announcement Dice confirmed a supplementary debenture or charge against the company by California-based Ocean LI PLO LLC apparently ‘relating to a previous investment agreement between Dice and Structural Capital that was announced in August of last year’ (https://www.theticketingbusiness.com/2024/12/05/dice-confirms-new-charge/).
Ticketing Business News suggested that this charge (a security that a company provides to a lender in exchange for a loan) will fuel further speculation about the company’s future, whose 2023 accounts are also due to be filed at Companies House later this month.
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That the internet continues to disrupt historical models and markets and is transforming our culture economy, seems obvious, but to what scale, and what does that mean to legacy media and entertainment corporations?
In an excellent overview by Doug Shapiro (‘The Relentless, Inevitable March of the Creator Economy’ https://dougshapiro.substack.com/p/the-relentless-inevitable-march-of-creator-economy) he analysed the current global media & entertainment (M&E) business sector, identifying the corporate media conglomerates (Amazon Prime, Apple TV, Disney, Fox, Netflix, Sony, UMG, Warners, etc.) and the creator media economy (with content distributed and monetised by Instagram, OnlyFans, Patreon, Soundcloud, Spotify, Substack, TikTok, YouTube, etc.) which he identified as already generating close to $250Bn in revenues last year, or roughly 10% of global M&E.
Shapiro, states that whilst corporate media has in terms of time spent and audience engagement with legacy print, radio, and tv channels stagnated, tech companies have successfully lured advertisers and their revenues away to their own mobile web destinations, whilst also distributing UGC on platforms that have eliminated the distinction between professionals and amateurs and disrupted the traditional cultural formats and monetisation.
As a result, new social video networks, membership-based adult communities, cloud-gaming & esports, immersive & competitive sports exercising, livestreaming & hybrid VR/IRL concerts, experiential exhibitions, blogging, podcasting and influencer channels etc. are all taking market share and revenues from the legacy M&E platforms.
So, disruption has already happened with more change already underway, and with GenAI likely to further accelerate the process.
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With thanks to the support via LinkedIn, BlueSky and the blog subscribers. Until the next time.
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TJ_Chambers 